Geo-Economic Fragmentation in the Context of Digitalization: Formation of New Contours of the World’s Macroeconomic System and Russia’s Sustainability Under Sanctions Attacks
https://doi.org/10.24833/14511791-2023-4-6-47
Abstract
The article considers the phenomenon of geo-economic fragmentation in the context of digitalization of social life and in the formation of new contours of the macroeconomic system. Particular attention is paid to Russia’s sustainability in the conditions of sanctions attacks. The author analyzes the data presented by major international organizations, predicting the consequences of global tectonic processes. The study highlights the problems arising from growing debt, limited resources and increasing global population. It is noted that in these conditions the US often initiates quick decisions, such as redistribution of commodity markets, which leads to complex consequences for the whole world. The article considers the problem of the emergence of macro-regions and crystallization of new poles in the global macroeconomic system, and assesses the possibility of forming a multipolar world. The conclusion is that international organizations forecast short- and medium-term geo-economic fragmentation, and the reconfiguration of ties and the division of the world into macro-regions are unable to lead to a sharp decline in macroeconomic indicators, which is confirmed by the analysis of trade relations between different countries and regions.
About the Author
A. R. BakhtizinRussian Federation
Albert R. Bakhtizin, Doctor of Economics, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences
117418, Moscow, Nakhimovsky prospect, 47 a
References
1. Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R., Wu Jie, Wu Zili. Hybrid wars in the macroeconomic super-system of the XXI century // Economic Strategies. 2023. № 2(188). С. 6-23.
2. In the U.S., they do not know how Huawei managed to do it: an official investigation into the origin of the latest processor in the Huawei Mate 60 Pro smartphone has already begun // IXBT.COM URL: https://www.ixbt.com/news/2023/09/08/huawei-huawei-mate-60-pro.html (accessed on 26.10.2023).
3. Makarov V.L., Wu C., Wu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. World trade wars: scenario calculations of the consequences // Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. - 2020. - Т. 90. № 2. - С. 169-179, DOI: 10.31857/S0869587320020097
4. Makarov V.L., Wu C., Wu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Modern tools for assessing the consequences of global trade wars // Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. - 2019. - № Т. 89. № 7. - С. 745-754.
5. Makarov V.L., Ilyin N.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Khabriev B.R. (2022): National strength of the world’s countries: assessment and forecast // Economic Strategies. - 2022. - № 6 (186). - С. 38-51. https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.38-51
6. The main directions of socio-economic development of Russia: justification and assessment of consequences (based on the results of modeling studies of CEMI RAS). - MOSCOW: CEMI RAS, 2023. - 116 с.
7. The creation of a multipolar world is inevitable // Rossiyskaya Gazeta URL: https://rg.ru/2023/10/16/vladimir-putin-sozdanie-mnogopoliarnogo-mira-neizbezhno.html (accessed on 26.10.2023).
8. Aiyar S., Ilyina A. et al. (2023). Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism. Staff Discussion Note SDN/2023/001. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC
9. Aiyar, S, A Presbitero and M Ruta (eds) (2023), ‘Geoeconomic Fragmentation: The Economic Risks from a Fractured World Economy’, CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/books-and-reports/geoeconomic-fragmentation-economic-risks-frac-tured-world-economy
10. Ari, A., Engler, P., Li. G., Patnam, M., and Valderrama, L. (2023). Energy Support for Firms in Europe: Best Practice Considerations and Recent Experience. IMF Working Paper, WP/23/197
11. Arriola, C., et al. (2023), “Challenges to international trade and the global economy: Recovery from COVID-19 and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine”, OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. 265, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/5c561274-en.
12. Attinasi, Maria Grazia and Boeckelmann, Lukas and Meunier, Baptiste, The Economic Costs of Supply Chain Decoupling (August, 2023). ECB Working Paper No. 2023/2839, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4532103 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4532103.
13. Bolhuis A. Marijn, Jiaqian Chen and Benjamin Kett (2023): Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities. IMF Working Paper, No. WP 23/73
14. Carlos Góes, Eddy Bekkers The Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Trade, Growth, and Innovation //World Trade Organization Economic Research and Statistics Division, Staff Working Paper ERSD-2022-09, https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd202209_e.htm.
15. Charting Globalization’s Turn to Slowbalization After Global Financial Crisis // International Monetary Fund URL: https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/02/08/charting-globalizations-turn-to-slowbalization-after-global-financial-crisis (accessed on 26.10.2023).
16. China’s Xi fights fires at home and abroad // washingtonpost.com URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/05/xi-jinping-issues-domestic-global-economy-trouble/ (accessed on 26.10.2023).
17. Defense Budget Overview United States Department of Defense Fiscal Year 2024 Budget Request // The United States government URL: https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2024/FY2024_Budget_Request_Overview_Book.pdf (accessed on 26.10.2023).
18. Economic Forecasting Is Really Difficult. Just Ask the IMF // Bloomberg URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-imf-forecasts/ (accessed on 26.10.2023).
19. Global Scenarios: Taiwan Tensions // Oxford Economics URL: https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/GSS_Webinar_2023Q3_final.pdf (accessed on 26.10.2023).
20. IEA (2022), World Energy Outlook 2022, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022, License: CC BY 4.0 (report); CC BY NC SA 4.0 (Annex A)
21. Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) // World Bank Group URL: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS (accessed on 26.10.2023).
22. International Monetary Fund. 2023. Global Financial Stability Report: Safeguarding Financial Stability amid High Inflation and Geopolitical Risks. Washington, DC, April.
23. International Monetary Fund. 2023. World Economic Outlook: A Rocky Recovery. Washington, DC. April
24. International Monetary Fund. 2023. World Economic Outlook: Navigating Global Divergences. Washington, DC. October
25. Jorge Alvarez, Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi, Chiara Maggi, Alexandre Sollaci, Martin Stuermer and Petia Topalova (2023): Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets // International Monetary Fund Working Paper, WP No. 2023/201, October 2023
26. Kirin 9000s is using SMIC’s N+2 7nm tech: TechInsights // Huaweicentral.com URL: https://www.huaweicentral.com/kirin-9000s-is-using-smics-n2-7nm-tech-techinsights/ (accessed 26.10.2023).
27. Laura Alfaro and Davin Chor (2023): Global Supply Chains: The Looming “Great Reallocation” // NBER Working Paper No. 31661, September 2023, DOI: 10.3386/w31661
28. Monitoring Trade Disruptions from Space // International Monetary Fund URL: https://www.imf.org/portwatch (accessed on 26.10.2023).
29. OECD (2023), OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2023: Confronting Inflation and Low Growth, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/1f628002-en.
30. Serhan Cevik (2023): Long Live Globalization: Geopolitical Shocks and International Trade // International Monetary Fund Working Paper, WP No. 2023/225, October 2023
31. The High Cost of Global Economic Fragmentation // International Monetary Fund URL: https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/28/the-high-cost-of-global-econom-ic-fragmentation (accessed on 26.10.2023).
32. Trade Map // ITC URL: https://www.trademap.org (accessed on 26.10.2023).
33. Trade plateaus and restrictions rise, marking a new era for globalization // International Monetary Fund URL: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/06/PT-globalization-peak-Stanley (accessed 26.10.2023).
34. US Hegemony and Its Perils // Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the People’s Republic of China URL: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjbxw/202302/t20230220_11027664.html (accessed on 26.10.2023).
35. War slows recovery // International Monetary Fund URL: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022 (accessed on 26.10.2023).
36. World Bank Open Data // World Bank Group URL: https://data.worldbank.org/ (accessed on 26.10.2023).
Review
For citations:
Bakhtizin A.R. Geo-Economic Fragmentation in the Context of Digitalization: Formation of New Contours of the World’s Macroeconomic System and Russia’s Sustainability Under Sanctions Attacks. Journal of Digital Economy Research. 2023;1(4):6-47. https://doi.org/10.24833/14511791-2023-4-6-47